The Broadband Bottleneck
Published December 05, 2002
While South Korea is racing ahead, price is holding down broadband penetration here, according to Simon Romero in the NY Times:
- Only about 15 percent of American households currently subscribe to broadband service - or fast Internet access - despite the fact that 70 percent of households have the technical option of doing so. And analysts do not expect the majority of homes to have broadband access anytime for at least five years.
That means any company, whether America Online or any other Internet business, cannot expect to base a mass-market business on broadband anytime soon.
"We're working with a model of broadband adoption that is long and steady,
rather than a big revolutionary pop," said Daryl Schoolar, senior analyst at
the research firm of InStat/MDR.
So far, a crucial limit on demand has been price. Whether provided by the
telephone company or the cable company, broadband costs about $40 to $50 a
month - too steep, evidently, for a large contingent of Internet users who are
not convinced of the value of faster Web connections. And many, presumably, are deterred by horror stories of how difficult it can sometimes be to have
broadband service installed.
To be sure, businesses and many affluent households have adopted broadband at a rapid pace, which is why the total number of subscribers has climbed about 50 percent this year, according to InStat/MDR. And yet, while the number of subscribers is expected to grow, the rate of growth is expected to drop rapidly - to 38 percent next year, 23 percent in 2004 and the teens in 2005.
And so, only about one-third of households are expected to have broadband by
the end of 2006, with the great majority of those subscribing to the service
through cable modems and digital subscriber lines.
"It's a little less stunning than what we've seen elsewhere," Mr. Schoolar
said.
- The Broadband Bottleneck
- Published: December 05, 2002
- Type:
- Section: Culture
- Writer: Eric Olsen
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Eventually a smaller Internet company will start offering broadband for the same price as dial-up access, and people will switch from larger ISP conglomerates to smaller ISPs offering broadband.
When AOL was having trouble keeping customers at hourly rates, I predicted that it would lose market share. Once it did, it created a flat pricing plan.
When ISP companies create a reasonable, flat price for broadband (no more than say, $30 for the entire ISP service, with broadband included) people will begin to purchase it. This switch will also benefit the entertainment industry, because more people will demand multimedia that's easily accessed using broadband. At the moment, there's simply no reason for people to switch, when they can get the same thing from the Internet on TV.
ISPs need to realize the reality of American citizens' finances, and once they do and price broadband to fit those finances, more people will subscribe, and ISPs and the entertainment industry will prosper from making broadband an easily accessed Internet option.
Cheers,
-JM